Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court retention elections are as unpredictable as they are uniquely loud and partisan this year, with large portions of voters still undecided less than three weeks before the election, the latest poll suggests.
Democratic Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht face “yes” or “no” votes on their retention for another 10-year term on Nov. 4. Democrats hold a 5-2 majority on the state’s highest court, and conservative groups are pressing for a chance to flip a court that makes critical rulings on abortion, mail-in ballots and other election laws with the 2026 and 2028 elections looming.
Retention elections generally receive little fanfare, and only one justice has been voted out in more than 50 years. But the outcome of this year’s elections is far less certain after an unusual influx of spending and attention from both major political parties and advocates as part of a national high-stakes battle for control of the courts and legislatures.
Forty-three percent of registered voters were undecided on Justice Donohue, 51% for Justice Dougherty and 55% for Justice Wecht, according to a recent survey of almost 1,000 registered voters from Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. Each received stronger support for a “yes” vote than a “no” vote (31%-27%, 30%-19% and 25%-21%, respectively) but those voters were outnumbered by respondents who said they “do not know.”
The election “has had more media attention and campaign expenditures than usual for such races, and the outcomes … are unpredictable at this point,” wrote Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall and director of the college’s polling operation.
“This unpredictability is because roughly half of voters are undecided about their preferences, there are strong partisan differences driving the retention decision, and even likely voters are undecided about how they will vote,” he said. “Whatever else might be said about these races, the campaigning so far has injected more partisanship than is typical into the retention decision.”
Respondents described as “likely voters” — as opposed to the full pool of surveyed registered voters — were firmer in their support for retention. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters said they plan to vote “yes” for Justice Donohue and Justice Dougherty, and 38% for Justice Wecht. Still, a third of “likely voters” remain undecided on the race.
Outside groups and candidates have already raised and spent more than $8 million, making this Pennsylvania’s most expensive retention election ever. The national ACLU and ACLU of Pennsylvania have pledged to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars, and Republican groups and a conservative advocacy network tied to billionaire and GOP megadonor Jeffrey Yass have invested resources as well.
“It could end up being one of the two most expensive retention elections in the history of the country,” Douglas Keith, deputy director of the Judiciary Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, recently told the Post-Gazette. “That speaks to this moment we’re in.”
If one or more of the justices loses their retention bids, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro would appoint a justice to fill the vacancy. The appointee would have to be confirmed by the Republican-controlled state Senate, and a new justice would be chosen for a 10-year-term in a 2027 election.
The Franklin & Marshall poll also suggested that more registered voters believe Pennsylvania is “on the wrong track” than “headed in the right direction,” 46% to 37%.
More than a third of respondents said they are worse off financially than a year ago, with only 16% reporting that they are better off. Twenty-two percent said their top concerns were economic, including unemployment, housing costs, higher gas and utility prices. Slightly more voters (23%) said they were most worried about the government and politics.
More than half of voters (51%) say Shapiro is doing a good or excellent job. That includes three-quarters of Democrats, half of independents and more than a quarter of Republicans, according to the poll.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at 41% — comparable to the share of voters who believed he was doing a good or excellent job before the 2020 election.
“But the administration’s performance on taming inflation is its greatest liability at the moment,” said Yost.
Trump’s and Republicans’ major tax and spending plan, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is opposed by Pennsylvania’s registered voters 51%-40%, the poll showed.
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