This article is part of Ad Watch, a series examining claims made in political ads leading up to the 2026 midterm election. In the column, which The Morning Call revives during major election years, reporter Lindsay Weber researches claims made in political ads, puts them into context and reaches a “verdict” on the accuracy of the claims. If you have an ad for us to factcheck, email liweber@mcall.com with Ad Watch in the subject line. View all our election coverage at themorningcall.com/election.
The race
Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who ousted Democrat Susan Wild last year and is running unopposed for the GOP nomination in the Lehigh Valley’s congressional district, will face a Democratic challenger in November 2026 — so far five people have lined up for the nomination to run against him.
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District is considered one of the most competitive in the country, and a key seat in determining which party controls the House of Representatives. The margins of elections have been razor thin in recent years — Mackenzie ousted Wild by just one percentage point, or 4,000 votes, and Wild, in 2022, was reelected to a third term by a slim two percentage point margin, or around 6,000 votes.
Democrats are aiming to harness perceived anger at the GOP for forthcoming cuts to some social programs and a still-stagnant U.S. economy, whereas Mackenzie is aiming to tout economic progress and immigration crackdowns in his pitch to 2026 midterm voters.
Congressional races in the Lehigh Valley often see major spending and ads from outside groups that are not directly affiliated with the candidates’ campaigns: In 2024, spending from outside groups on the Lehigh Valley election outpaced spending from the candidates’ campaigns, according to Open Secrets.
The ad
The ad features “Chuck,” who is identified in a chyron as a homicide detective. In the ad, Chuck says he has been “on the job” for 28 years and takes pride in his work.
“What kills me is working overtime to get the job done, and getting taxed for it,” Chuck says. “Thankfully, Ryan Mackenzie gets it. He voted to cut taxes on overtime and kick criminal illegals off Medicaid.”
The ad features a TV screen with B-roll footage of Mackenzie, and text that reads “Ryan Mackenzie voted to cut taxes on overtime” and “Ryan Mackenzie kicked 1.4 million illegals off of Medicaid.”
The ad ends with Chuck urging the viewer to call Mackenzie’s office to thank him for making his job easier.
The ad is funded by the American Action Network, a 501c4 political organization — such groups are sometimes referred to as “dark money” groups because they can raise and spend unlimited amounts and are not required to disclose their donors. American Action Network is a conservative, Republican-aligned organization that airs advertisements and contributes to campaigns that favor Republican political candidates.
The ad is part of a $3.2 million digital ad buy across 25 competitive congressional districts, according to reporting from Punchbowl News.
The ad is independent from Mackenzie’s reelection campaign. Outside political groups are legally barred from coordinating directly with campaigns.
Analysis
The ad’s central claim about overtime tax cuts and undocumented immigrants’ access to Medicaid is tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a $3 trillion spending bill signed into law this year under Donald Trump with the support of Republicans. It received no votes from Democrats.
Chuck, the homicide detective in the ad, appears to be Chuck Hernandez, a retired Chicago police department detective and chair of the Chicago Republican Party, according to a post on the Cook County Republican Party’s website. A statement from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Eli Cousin criticized the ad for using someone outside of Pennsylvania to laud Mackenzie and criticized Mackenzie’s vote in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The GOP megabill extended and broadened tax cuts for most Americans, though its biggest benefits will go to the wealthiest Americans, Congressional Budget Office analysis shows. The law permanently extended the Child Tax Credit, eliminated taxes on tips and overtime, and broadened tax breaks for small businesses.
The law cut an estimated $1 trillion from the federal Medicaid budget over the next 10 years, via implementing work and eligibility requirements for people who rely on the program for their health care.
That law eliminated the federal income tax on overtime pay through 2028. The maximum amount of overtime pay that is exempt from taxes is $12,500 per person annually, or $25,000 for people filing together. Earners who make more than $150,000, or $300,000 combined filing together, are not eligible for the overtime tax exemption.
However, the claim that the law “kicks 1.4 million criminal illegals off of Medicaid” is false. People who are in the United States illegally are not eligible for Medicaid.
The 1.4 million figure the ad cites appears to come from a Congressional Budget Office analysis, which referred to people who are low-income and covered by some state health care programs regardless of their immigration status. Fourteen states and the District of Columbia offer some type of health care coverage for people regardless of their immigration status — half of which exclusively provide health care coverage to children, and half of which provide coverage to some qualified adults regardless of their immigration status, according to KFF.
The One Big Beautiful Bill cuts off federal Medicaid funding to these states if they fail to cut the state programs that offer coverage to people regardless of their immigration status.
However, those federal Medicaid dollars are not used to provide health care to immigrants in the country illegally. Any state that chooses to offer health care to people regardless of their immigration status pays for it via their own state budget.
According to KFF, the 1.4 million people covered under such state programs have legal status but are not eligible for Medicaid. For example, refugees, people with temporary protected status or U Visa holders, are eligible for those state programs in states that offer them.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 1.4 million people may lose their state health care coverage, assuming that states choose to drop those state insurance programs in order to continue to receive Medicaid funding.
Verdict
The ad is partially misleading. The One Big Beautiful Bill does eliminate taxes on overtime up to a preordained limit. However, it does not “kick 1.4 million criminal illegals” off of Medicaid, as the ad states. People in the United States illegally are not eligible for Medicaid.
Immigrants, including those without status, may be removed from state programs as a result of the GOP law, which threatens to revoke funding for Medicaid to states that offer such programs.
Reporter Lindsay Weber can be reached at Liweber@mcall.com.
