A strong nor’easter is “increasingly likely” to have significant impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast this weekend, bringing heavy rain and strong wind to the region, including the Lehigh Valley.
The coastal storm off North Carolina will likely make its way north Saturday, but the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos should stay dry until Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey.
The brunt of the storm will affect the region Sunday into Monday, when heavy rain and strong winds are expected, forecasters said.
The Lehigh Valley and most of southeastern Pennsylvania has a roughly 50% chance of getting 2 inches or more rain before the storm leaves the area Monday, the weather service said.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected across the region, according to the weather service. Some areas could see 3-5 inches.
Heavy rain from the storm could trigger flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas, the weather service said. The Lehigh Valley is at a “marginal risk” of excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, while areas to the south and east are at a “slight risk,” according to the weather service’s forecast map.
Wind will also be a factor, with maximum gusts in the Lehigh Valley expected to reach 30 mph.
While the Lehigh Valley won’t be spared, the storm will have more of an impact on the coastal regions well south of Philadelphia, in New Jersey and Delaware, where the weather service has issued storm and high wind watches. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along the coast, according to the weather service.
Moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible Sunday into Monday, and “preliminary guidance suggests this could be a significant to severe event,” the weather service said.
Meteorologists with the local forecast office said Thursday in their daily forecast discussion that there is still a lot of uncertainty with the track of the storm, which could change its intensity and impacts.
The storm comes during a fairly dry period for the Lehigh Valley, with rainfall totals below normal the last few months. The U.S. Drought Monitor, which tracks drought conditions throughout the country, showed a part of northeastern Northampton County and a small portion of Lehigh County under moderate drought conditions. The rest of both counties are considered “abnormally dry.”
Temperatures over the next several days will continue to feel autumn-like, with daytime highs in the 60s.
Here is the extended forecast from the National Weather Service:
Friday: Widespread frost before 9 a.m. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 65. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday: A chance of showers after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: Rain. Low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night: A chance of rain before 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
